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Named one of the Ten Best Books of 2013 by Michiko Kakutani and the New York Times Book Review�
“Blinder is a master storyteller . . . one of the best books yet about the financial crisis.” —The Wall Street Journal
Alan S. Blinder—esteemed Princeton professor, Wall Street Journal columnist, and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board under Alan Greenspan—is one of our wisest and most clear-eyed economic thinkers. In After the Music Stopped, he delivers a masterful narrative of how the worst economic crisis in postwar American history happened, what the government did to fight it, and what we must do to recover from it. With bracing clarity, Blinder chronicles the perfect storm of events beginning in 2007, from the bursting of the housing bubble to the implosion of the bond bubble, and how events in the U.S. spread throughout the interconnected global economy. Truly comprehensive and eminently readable, After the Music Stopped is the essential book about the financial crisis.
- Sales Rank: #31093 in Books
- Brand: Brand: Penguin Books
- Published on: 2013-12-18
- Released on: 2013-12-18
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.42" h x 1.11" w x 5.45" l, .93 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 528 pages
- Used Book in Good Condition
From Booklist
Blinder, a corporate executive and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, sets out to tell the American people what happened during the financial crisis of 2007–09. He explains the events that are still reverberating in the U.S. and globally and will challenge public policy for years. With public policy as his focus, he considers how we got into that mess and how we got out—to the extent we have gotten out. The author considers the future—what have we learned both economically and politically, and will we handle future crises better? What vulnerabilities do we still have? What future problems have we accidently created? Finally, Blinder offers a host of recommendations, which include his Ten Financial Commandments, including Thou Shalt Remember That People Forget (people forget when the good times roll) and Thou Shalt Not Rely on Self-Regulation (Self-regulation in financial markets is an oxymoron). This excellent book in understandable language offers valuable insight and important ideas for a wide range of library patrons. --Mary Whaley
Review
The Wall Street Journal:
"[Blinder] is a master storyteller... [After the Music Stopped] is one of the best books yet about the financial crisis."
Michiko Kakutani,�The New York Times:
"Highly readable... Mr. Blinder draws on the work of many... reporters in his account. But if large portions of After the Music Stopped feel familiar, the book nonetheless benefits from its wide-angle perspective, as well as from its vantage point in time, now that it's possible to assess the fallout of decisions that were being made on the run by White House and Treasury officials under extraordinary pressures. It also benefits from Mr. Blinder's clear-eyed prose and nimble gifts as an explainer — gifts that sometimes approach those of Bill Clinton, when it comes to making complicated economic issues and policies understandable to the lay reader. Direct and concise, Mr. Blinder tells it as he sees it."
Financial Times:
"Blinder's book deserves its likely place near the top of reading lists about the crisis. It is the best comprehensive history of the episode... A riveting tale."
The New Republic:
"For a reader wondering how we got here, and why the people in charge have seemed, often, to be so chary of stringing up the culprits, or tearing down the system, Blinder's book - not least because his fair-minded approach and pragmatic mindset evokes that of America's current regulators�- gives us an invaluable insight."
USA Today:
"What does all the knowledge mean to generalist readers? A lot, actually. Blinder is no defender of his economist colleagues or other former and current insiders who caused so much damage�- or, at minimum, failed to see the collapse on the horizon. He writes clearly�- as well as lots of journalists. That combination makes the book a worthy addition to the literature."
Seattle Times:
“If you want to get between the covers with your favorite econ nerd this season, I recommend Alan Blinder’s After the Music Stopped: The Financial Crisis, the Response and the Work Ahead. Written by the former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, this deserves a place among the top reads on the Great Panic and its aftermath.”
Cleveland Plain Dealer:
"A prodigiously detailed yet generally accessible investigation of the roots of the meltdown, its multiple and continuing reverberations in the United States and globally, and the short-term fixes and long-term remedies required to treat, and then heal, the patient."
President William J. Clinton:
"If you want to understand every aspect of our economic crisis—how we got into it, how we escaped a depression, why we haven't fully recovered, and what we have to do now—read this book. It's a masterpiece—simple, straightforward and wise."
Paul A. Volcker:
"True to his scholarly roots and informed by his practical insights, Alan Blinder has produced in After the Music Stopped both a comprehensive and, mirabile dictu, engagingly readable analysis of the great financial crisis. Whether or not one agrees with every particular judgment, the force of the argument is clear: here we are, four years later, still short of reforms that are needed."
Bob Woodward:
"Alan Blinder is one of the world's best informed and most balanced, sensible economists. His credentials include years as a senior adviser in the Clinton White House, then as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve and as regular op-ed contributor to the Wall Street Journal. After the Music Stopped is the best account available of what really happened in the 2008 financial crisis, why and what it now means for the future."
Mohamed A. El-Erian:
"Of all the books that I have read on the topic—and I have read quite a few—After the Music Stopped provides the most authoritative account of the why, how and what of the global financial crisis. This highly readable analysis takes you brilliantly through the construction of America's fragile house of financial cards, its sudden and dramatic collapse and, as important, the difficult reconstruction and rehabilitation work that must still be done. Whether you are interested in current affairs or in history, read this book if you want an expert and well-written analysis of how economics and politics interacted to create one big mess, not just for America but also for the global economy."
About the Author
Alan S. Blinder, one of the world’s most trusted economists, is the Gordon S. Rentschler Memorial Professor of Economics and Public Affairs at Princeton University and vice chairman of the Promontory Interfinancial Network.
Most helpful customer reviews
69 of 75 people found the following review helpful.
Enlightening, Entertaining, Outstanding
By Joseph Fichera
An economist who speaks English! This is a rare person, one who can connect with the rest of us and give us an insider's but big picture perspective. Michael Lewis and Alan Blinder are two sides of the same coin. They enlighten and entertain on finance. Blinder is the scholar but don't hold that against him; it's what makes this a must read.
This book explains what really happened to us and why in the financial crisis. All of us know the crisis. Many can discuss it at the "cocktail party, shaking of the head" level of discourse, but few us can discuss the "why-did-they-do-it" or know what lies ahead for us next time. We think it too complicated or too much inside baseball to take the time to figure it out.
Blinder has done this work for us in an entertaining yet scholarly way that we can believe. It's not 24-hour news cycle hype nor a dumbed down HBO movie script.
The narrative is an easy read through a difficult subject. It is better and more entertaining than for example Michael Lewis's "Big Short" (though Lewis is a Princetonian as well and probably took a course from Blinder) in part because Blinder takes us on a journey through the origins and responses to the ENTIRE financial crisis. Along the way, he asks the questions we would ask and then answers them in a down to earth prose.
Before writing this review, I looked at the expert reviews. The Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, Washington Post and even the Cleveland Plain Dealer described this book as the "best" account of what happened and why. While everyone has opinion on some aspect of the account, there is a consensus that Blinder presents the information in the best possible way for the rest of us and offers the most comprehensive discussion. The Washington Post said something I rarely see "Alan Blinder is a national treasure...He invariably sees what's really going on and has a gift for explaining it without being blinded by party or ideology." Then you have Bill Clinton saying " "If you want to understand every aspect of our economic crisis--how we got into it, how we escaped a depression, why we haven't fully recovered, and what we have to do now--read this book. It's a masterpiece--simple, straightforward and wise." Turn off CNBC and Fox; pick up Blinder. The PBS Nightly Business report did a good interview which you can watch here [...]
As I read through the chapters, I found myself not needing to stop and consider what I just read. The prose flows in a way that is almost conversational as the sordid story unfolds. It is as if the expert is there with me and understands I need an example from my life to make the exposition real to me.
Each chapter is divided into subsections and sub-headers to guide us though the narrative that is not a fluid sequence of a + b + c but more complex. Yet, the complexity is dealt like weaving a fabric. Each piece fits together and it is only until the end you realize that you have just completed something complicated. It seemed so simple as you went through it. And this is where I have an "AHA" moment. So THAT is what was going on. How did I get there? Blinder walked me through it...and i didn't even realize it.
In the end, Blinder gives a set of seven prescriptions for dealing with the next crisis. He clearly is an optimist and believes that enlightenment can change behavior. I'm not so sure. For example he didn't really address how the crazy compensation systems he identified up front will change. Greed still exists. If bankers pay cash up front for taking long-term risks, I doubt much changes. Yet that is something insidious. Blinder can't be expected to give us all the solutions.
"After the Music Stopped" is a great read to help the rest of us understand what happened. Then, what will be, will be, que sera sera. Read this book; understand. Make your own contribution, whether with friends at that cocktail party, at the office, online or in the solitude of the voting booth.
119 of 134 people found the following review helpful.
Outstanding -
By Loyd Eskildson
We still haven't recovered from the recent financial crisis and subsequent Great Recession. Numerous books have been written about these events. Why another one? Blinder brings both great credibility (Princeton Professor of Economics, former Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board) and a new focus on the 'why' rather than the 'what' of the crisis and response. His intent is to provide the 'big picture,' instead of detailing who said what to whom when.
Blinder's 'supershort version' is that the U.S. financial system had grown far too complex and fragile for its own good, and had far too little regulation for the public good. It then experienced a perfect storm during 2007-09 that started with the bursting of the housing bubble, then followed by a 'bond bubble' implosion that was probably more devastating. The stock market also collapsed, turning many 401(k)s into '201(k)s.'
Blinder tells us that all modern economies rely on credit-granting mechanism to nourish the rest of the system, the U.S. more than most. What had been far too much credit turned into vastly too little. Congress then expanded the social safety net and enacted large-scale fiscal stimulus programs, the Federal Reserve dropped interest rates to the floor, created incredible amounts of liquidity, and took over AIG insurance. The result, per Blinder, was a modestly happy ending; however, he gives our macroeconomic performance post-Fall 2008 an F.
Why? Total jobs losses were just under 8.8 million, over a period during which we should have added about 3.1 million more, created a cumulative job deficit of about 12 million by 2/2010. Then the job deficit rose even higher in 2010-11 as job creation fell short of the 125,000/month required to keep up with population growth. By 8/2012 total employment was only back to 4/2005 levels - zero net growth over a period exceeding seven years.
In an average month during 1948-2007, less than 13% of the unemployed were jobless for over 6 months; by 4/2010, it was over 45%, and only slightly less today. Read GDP decline in 5 of the 6 quarters of 2008 and the first half of 2009 - the worst performance since the 1930s.
Blinder does not believe the housing boom/bust was a major factor in our poor recent economic performance.Residential construction normally comprises about 4% of GDP (4.5% in 2000), hit 6.3% in 2005:4, then started falling. Spread over the five years, this 'boom' added just 0.3% to the overall GDP growth rate. Home prices peaked in 2006 or 2007, depending on the measure used. Spending on new homes then fell to less than half this peak. Two or three years passed between the start of the decline in housing construction and the serious decline in the overall economy. During 2006-07 real GDP rose at a 2.3% annual rate and unemployment barely budged. Instead, Lehman Brothers' failure on 9/15/2008 kicked off the crisis.
Seven key weaknesses predated and contributed greatly to the ensuring financial mess. 1)Inflated asset prices, especially housing. 2)Excessive leverage. 3)Lax financial regulation - both in terms of what the law didn't regulate (eg. no one was responsible for the national mortgage market or protecting gullible consumers) and how poorly regulators performed their duties. 4)Disgraceful banking practices in mortgage lending. 5)Crazy unregulated securities and derivatives built on those bad mortgages. 6)Abysmal performance of statistical rating agencies. 7)Perverse compensation systems that created incentives to go for broke. Summarizing - errors and frauds by private companies and individuals, combined by government's hands-off policy that limited aid to corporations did us all in. A backlash against TARP's overgenerous bailouts and failure to prosecute corporate leaders was then directed against government activism, Obama, Congress - especially Democrats, Keynesian economics, and the Federal Reserve.
Blinder then reviews some of the most common prescriptives for preventing recurrence. Glass-Steagall (GS) would not have succeeded. U.S. banking problems mostly didn't come from investment banking, but from high leverage combined with poor lending practices. Nor would GS have prevented the shenanigans at Bear Stearns, AIG, Countrywide, etc. Blinder also rules out actions directed against 'Too Big to Fail' (TBTG). These would force large U.S. firms to either deal with scores of modest-sized banks or large ones based overseas. Instead, he proposes a systemic risk regulatory federal agency that (hopefully) would have seen the dodgy mortgages, the questionable AAA ratings for securities built on those mortgages, the hug risk concentrations on and off banks' balance sheets, and the fact that a single insurance company (AIG) was on the sell side of an inordinate share of CDs issued and lacked the capital to back them.
Reducing allowable leverage would reduce profitability. Volker has proposed banning FDIC-insured banks from proprietary trading. Blinder, however, points out that it's difficult in practice to distinguish trading for the bank's own account and market-making for a client. Hedging (good) can be distinguished from gambling (bad) only by knowing a bank's entire portfolio, if even then. Should a giant non-bank investment house with a huge trading book be allowed to go under ala Lehman? 'Not very appealing,' per Blinder. Meanwhile, we now have six federal regulatory agencies and 100 more at the state level (bank and insurance). Overlap and gaps are a problem.
Derivatives are another target for reform proposals. Blinder points out that they can be used to hedge or gamble, and an insurer can go bankrupt, dragging others down. Perhaps their most obvious flaw comes with customized OTC products and their bringing opacity, higher trading costs, and richer profits for investment banks - the latter creating large profits and resistance to change.
Hedge funds have been another source of ire. However, Blinder contends they helped mitigate the housing/bond bubbles via short-selling that pushed prices down, they typically use less leverage (managers are owners with a great deal of their own money at risk), none were seen as TBTF, and none received government assistance. So why push greater regulation? Because if the Volcker Rule was adopted the shift in trading might make some hedge funds TBTF.
How to fix the ratings agencies - assign issuers randomly to ratings agencies (Sen. Frankel).
ARMs were not the major cause of mortgage defaults, except in the early days of the crisis when rates rose. The Federal Reserve's subsequent efforts to lower rates then either stopped upward resets or lowered rates. Job losses and other economic setbacks were a much bigger problem.
Blinder contends the mortgage default crisis could have been prevented by $200+ billion in federal lending, per the 1930s model provided by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC). It paid off existing home mortgages and replaced them with new ones with less onerous terms; financing came from the Treasury and the open markets. Despite 20% still defaulting, the HOLC made a small profit overall before it was terminated. We overbuilt about 1.75 million houses prior to the collapse, and since then underbuilt about 3 million - thus, a similar program today would have been digestible. Unfortunately, government leaders were too timid (possibly scared off by negative reactions to TARP), ideologically opposed, and/or bureaucratic.
63 of 76 people found the following review helpful.
Well-written, fairly comprehensive, but unconvincing in policy prescriptions
By Glenn Corey
The current financial and economic crisis that began in 2008 and that, in my opinion, hasn't seen its last down leg will be written about for decades to come, and so no single book should be regarded as the final word. Such a complex, devastating, and multifaceted event is probably too complicated for one person to understand, and so a variety of viewpoints should be sought out. While I'm no expert on the whole matter, either as regards theoretical issues impacting the event or empirical evidence supporting one or another theory, I have read a few books about the crisis and can at least say that I've reached a point where I can identify what makes sense and what doesn't (at least to me). Alan Blinder's book is probably one of the better books I've read by what I consider establishment economists (those who work at a major university, have had extensive high-level experience in government, or basically support a Keynesian approach to economics). I confess that, despite my best attempts to approach all books without prior judgment, I expected to like the book a lot less than I did.
To his credit, Blinder is critical of virtually all the major culprits, though he is rather soft in his criticisms of the Federal Reserve (the Fed)and the federal government. He tends to minimize the role that the Fed had in creating the crisis in the first place. This is not surprising for a former high-ranking Fed official. In addition, he seems to relegate moral hazard to a secondary or even tertiary cause or factor in the crisis, whereas I think it plays a primary role, not just because of the recent bailouts but because of the message that has been conveyed for several decades by the Fed that the big banks and their profits will always be safe. I believe this is one of the main reasons why executives and other workers at large financial firms are given such huge bonuses: they know they'll be bailed out if things get really ugly, so why keep the cash on hand. The executives themselves may not understand this at a conscious level, but the Fed's message over the decades has been clear. Indeed, The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve makes a pretty good case that one of the main reasons the Fed was founded in the first place was to ensure profits for the big banks. And after the rescue of, I think, Continental Illinois bank in the 1980s, that book cites none other than former Fed chairman Paul Volcker as saying that saving the big banks was one of the main reasons the Fed was created.
Blinder cites some facts that did, I admit, surprise me. For example, in the end TARP (Trouble Assets Relief Program) netted a small profit for the American taxpayer. In addition, he suggests that the Fed's keeping interest rates so low for so long can't be a main cause of the housing bubble since England, for example, also had a housing bubble in the midst of interest-rate increases by that country's central bank. Such facts did, as I said, surprise me. At this point, I don't know what to make of them, except that they do seem to poke a hole in some criticisms of low interest rates advanced by libertarian economists/thinkers. Until I read Blinder's book, I had bought into those criticisms.
However, I don't believe Blinder is a big-picture kind of thinker. I say this because he looks for the causes of the current crisis in more recent events and doesn't seem to give much thought to the cumulative effects of certain policies. For example, what have the effects been of taking the U.S. off the gold standard, as a first step by FDR and then definitively by Nixon in 1971? By severing the link between gold and the dollar, Nixon unleashed forces that could ultimately lead to the complete devaluation of the dollar. After all, the average lifespan of fiat currencies (and why should they die at all?) is around 100 years. Look at a chart of the dollar. It starts losing serious value around 1898 when we entered the Spanish American war and then continues its irrevocable and earnest decline after 1913, the year the Fed was founded. Doesn't look like a good record of fighting inflation to me. What are the effects of Fed policies over the past century? Blinder doesn't address this issue.
Blinder also doesn't address the issue of what it means to have the world's de facto reserve currency as the U.S. does, what that has meant for Americans' standard of living, and what losing that status could mean for us in the future. Likewise, Blinder doesn't look at legislation, such as the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977, that undoubtedly led to the housing bubble in the early to mid-2000s. That legislation, together with a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in 1992 that suggested that lending policies of banks were inherently racist, coupled with threats by the Clinton Justice Department to file suit against lenders who evinced race-based lending policies (the report was later shown to be based on flimsy evidence), directly contributed to the run-up in housing prices, but Blinder does not even mention it. He must be aware of it, but for whatever reason, it doesn't fall within his radar. Another major issue completely ignored by Blinder is a central feature of our banking system: fractional reserve banking (FRB). The long-term, cumulative effects of fractional reserves are truly perverse; personally, I see no difference between FRB and counterfeiting. However, the effects of FRB are long term and so take a while to be felt. Finally is the inflation threat. Blinder seems to believe government statistics on inflation that show it to be minimal. But, as John Williams at ShadowStats has shown, government inflation models of today are not what they were in the 1980s, which weren't what they were in the first half of the 20th century. If they were, then the government would be showing inflation running at a much higher rate than it currently reports. I don't know if Blinder is deliberately skipping over Williams' work, but he doesn't question government-derived statistics on inflation (or unemployment).
Where Blinder is most at odds with my way of thinking is in his prescriptions for dealing with the situation. After arguing that one of the factors that contributed to the financial crisis was a lack of enforcement of regulation (regulation that was already in place), Blinder advocates more regulation, without explaining how that regulation would have any better chance of being enforced than the regulations that supposedly would have mollified the effects of the current crisis had they been enforced. When Harry Markopoulos, author of No One Would Listen: A True Financial Thriller, first notified the Federal Reserve about Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme, there was already enough regulation in place to stop Madoff in his tracks, and his investors would have lost only $3 billion at that point. By the time regulators got around to enforcing the law, Madoff had $50 billion in investors' money. Thus, the problem was not with a lack of regulation but a lack of enforcement. Blinder doesn't explain how new regulation would necessarily be enforced.
One minor aspect of the book I had a problem with was the style. Blinder tries to combine a scholarly, learned tone (and he is clearly at ease with his subject matter - a big plus of the book) with a chummy, colloquial one. Sometimes this grated on my nerves, and in one instance it makes Blinder look rather foolish. The title of Chapter 8 is "Stimulus, Stimulus, Wherefore Art Thou, Stimulus," an obvious echo of Juliet's "Oh Romeo, Romeo, wherefore art thou Romeo" from Shakespeare's "Romeo and Juliet." The first thing to note here is that in the original, there is no comma before the last "Romeo" because Juliet is not talking to Romeo; it's a monologue. The second, and more important, thing to note is that "wherefore" is an archaic word that means "why," not "where." Juliet is saying "Why does your name have to be Montague" (of all families in the world, why do you have to be the son of my father's mortal enemy?)? Blinder's use of "wherefore" thus makes no sense. I think he meant to say "stimulus, stimulus, where are you," because so far, the stimulus that the government promised hasn't materialized, but he seems to be ignorant of the real meaning of "wherefore." (Doesn't Blinder have any friends in the English Department at Princeton?) It's a minor point, I know, but it makes Blinder's attempt at showing off his erudition look silly.
All in all, I consider this book a worthwhile read, though by no means the final word. The bibliography and notes are also very good. However, Blinder seems (forgive me) blind to his own underlying assumptions, and if you don't know that it's possible to look at some very basic issues very differently from how Blinder regards them, you might not understand that Blinder is making an assumption at all but just stating the facts. But Blinder's general view is along the lines of the dominant one in the media and in policy circles, so it is likely to be praised as clear and even-handed, even wise. I recommend reading it alongside other books, though, for a broader understanding of the ongoing financial and economic crisis.
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