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Winner of the 2015 FT & McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award
A New York Times Bestseller
Top Business Book of 2015 at Forbes
One of NBCNews.com 12 Notable Science and Technology Books of 2015
What are the jobs of the future? How many will there be? And who will have them? We might imagine—and hope—that today’s industrial revolution will unfold like the last: even as some jobs are eliminated, more will be created to deal with the new innovations of a new era. In Rise of the Robots, Silicon Valley entrepreneur Martin Ford argues that this is absolutely not the case. As technology continues to accelerate and machines begin taking care of themselves, fewer people will be necessary. Artificial intelligence is already well on its way to making “good jobs” obsolete: many paralegals, journalists, office workers, and even computer programmers are poised to be replaced by robots and smart software. As progress continues, blue and white collar jobs alike will evaporate, squeezing working- and middle-class families ever further. At the same time, households are under assault from exploding costs, especially from the two major industries—education and health care—that, so far, have not been transformed by information technology. The result could well be massive unemployment and inequality as well as the implosion of the consumer economy itself.
In Rise of the Robots, Ford details what machine intelligence and robotics can accomplish, and implores employers, scholars, and policy makers alike to face the implications. The past solutions to technological disruption, especially more training and education, aren’t going to work, and we must decide, now, whether the future will see broad-based prosperity or catastrophic levels of inequality and economic insecurity. Rise of the Robots is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand what accelerating technology means for their own economic prospects—not to mention those of their children—as well as for society as a whole.
- Sales Rank: #34769 in Books
- Published on: 2015-05-05
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 1.40" h x 6.10" w x 9.30" l, .0 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 352 pages
Review
Winner of the 2015 FT & McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award
A New York Times Bestseller
Top Business Book of 2015 at Forbes
One of NBCNews.com 12 Notable Science and Technology Books of 2015
“For nonfiction, I tip my hat to Martin Ford’s Rise of the Robots, which is vacuuming up accolades and is recommended reading for IIF staff. Ford’s analysis, in a somewhat crowded field of similar books, offers a sobering assessment of how technology (robotics, machine learning, AI, etc.) is reshaping labor markets, the composition of growth, and the distribution of income and wealth, and calls for enlightened political and policy leadership to address coming, accelerating disruptions and dislocations.”
—Bloomberg Business, Timothy Adams
““We are in an era of technological optimism but sociological pessimism. Martin Ford’s Rise of the Robots captures why these shifts are related and what challenges this might pose to our conventional economic and social infrastructures.”
—Bloomberg Business, Andy Haldane
“Whether you agree or not with the policy prescriptions put forward by [Martin Ford’s Rise of the Robots and Anne-Marie Slaughter’s Unfinished Business] these two well-written books, and quite a few will likely disagree, they are important reads for those wishing to better understand and influence the future.”
—Bloomberg Business, Mohamed El-Erian
“Few captured the mood as well as Martin Ford in The Rise of the Robots, the winner of the FT and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award, which painted a bleak picture of the upheavals that would come as ever-greater numbers of even highly skilled workers were displaced by machines.”
—Financial Times
“[A] breathtaking new book on modern economics.”
—Forbes.com
“Lucid, comprehensive and unafraid to grapple fairly with those who dispute Ford’s basic thesis, Rise of the Robots is an indispensable contribution to a long-running argument.”
—Los Angeles Times
“If The Second Machine Age was last year’s tech-economy title of choice, this book may be 2015’s equivalent.”
—Financial Times, Summer books 2015, Business, Andrew Hill
“[Ford’s] a careful and thoughtful writer who relies on ample evidence, clear reasoning, and lucid economic analysis. In other words, it’s entirely possible that he’s right.”
—Daily Beast
“Rise of the Robots is an excellent book. Fair-minded, balanced, well-researched, and fully thought through.”
—Inside Higher Ed, Learn blog
“Surveying all the fields now being affected by automation, Ford makes a compelling case that this is an historic disruption—a fundamental shift from most tasks being performed by humans to one where most tasks are done by machines.”
—Fast Company
“Well written with interesting stories about both business and technology.”
—Wired/Dot Physics
“Mr. Ford lucidly sets out myriad examples of how focused applications of versatile machines (coupled with human helpers where necessary) could displace or de-skill many jobs… His answer to a sharp decline in employment is a guaranteed basic income, a safety net that he suggests would both cushion the effect on the newly unemployable and encourage entrepreneurship among those creative enough to make a new way for themselves. This is a drastic prescription for the ills of modern industrialization—ills whose severity and very existence are hotly contested. Rise of the Robots provides a compelling case that they are real, even if its more dire predictions are harder to accept.”
—Wall Street Journal
“Well-researched and disturbingly persuasive.”
—Financial Times
“[Rise of the Robots is]about as scary as the title suggests. It’s not science fiction, but rather a vision (almost) of economic Armageddon.”
—Frank Bruni, New York Times
“As Martin Ford documents in Rise of the Robots, the job-eating maw of technology now threatens even the nimblest and most expensively educated...the human consequences of robotization are already upon us, and skillfully chronicled here."
—New York Times Book Review
“Compelling and well-written… In his conception, the answer is a combination of short-term policies and longer-term initiatives, one of which is a radical idea that may gain some purchase among gloomier techno-profits: a guaranteed income for all citizens. If that stirs up controversy, that's the point. The book is both lucid and bold, and certainly a starting point for robust debate about the future of all workers in an age of advancing robotics and looming artificial intelligence systems.”
—ZDNet
“An alarming new book.”
—Esquire
“A thorough look at how far machines have come”
—Washington Post, Innovations blog
“Ford tells great stories, both about innovation in the last 50 years and about the potential impacts of widespread automation of work in the future…Rise of the Robots is a competent, approachable, and well-written synthesis of information across many area, and provides a valuable, coherent picture of automation’s socio-economic interactions.”
—IEEE Technology and Society Magazine
“Ford offers ideas on changes in social policies, including guaranteed income, to keep our economy humming and prepare ourselves for a more automated future.”
—Booklist
“A careful and courageous examination of automation and its possible impact on society.”
—Kirkus Reviews
“In Rise of the Robots, Ford coolly and clearly considers what work is under threat from automation.”
—New Scientist
“Makes clear the need to come to grips with ever more rapidly advancing technology and its effects on how people make a living and how the economy functions.”
—Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
“Of all the moderns who have written on automation and rising joblessness, Martin Ford is the original. His Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future is due out this May.... Self-recommending.”
—Marginal Revolution
“Robots, and their like, are on the rise. Their impact will be an important question in the next decade and beyond. Martin Ford has been thinking in this area before most others, so this book deserves very careful consideration.”
—Lawrence Summers, President Emeritus and Charles W. Eliot University Professor, Harvard University
“It's not easy to accept, but it's true. Education and hard work will no longer guarantee success for huge numbers of people as technology advances. The time for denial is over. Now it's time to consider solutions and there are very few proposals on the table. Rise of the Robots presents one idea, the basic income model, with clarity and force. No one who cares about the future of human dignity can afford to skip this book.”
—Jaron Lanier, author of You Are Not a Gadget and Who Owns the Future?
“Ever since the Luddites, pessimists have believed that technology would destroy jobs. So far they have been wrong. Martin Ford shows with great clarity why today's automated technology will be much more destructive of jobs than previous technological innovation. This is a book that everyone concerned with the future of work must read.”
—Lord Robert Skidelsky, Emeritus Professor of Political Economy at the University of Warwick, co-author of How Much Is Enough?: Money and the Good Life and author of the three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes
“Martin Ford has thrust himself into the center of the debate over AI, big data, and the future of the economy with a shrewd look at the forces shaping our lives and work. As an entrepreneur pioneering many of the trends he uncovers, he speaks with special credibility, insight, and verve. Business people, policy makers, and professionals of all sorts should read this book right away—before the 'bots steal their jobs. Ford gives us a roadmap to the future.”
—Kenneth Cukier, Data Editor for the Economist and co-author of Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think
“If the robots are coming for my job (too), then Martin Ford is the person I want on my side, not to fend them off but to construct a better world where we can all—humans and our machines—live more prosperously together. Rise of the Robots goes far beyond the usual fear-mongering punditry to suggest an action plan for a better future.”
—Cathy N. Davidson, Distinguished Professor and Director, The Futures Initiative, The Graduate Center, CUNY and author of Now You See It: How the Brain Science of Attention Will Transform the Way We Live, Work, and Learn
“Martin Ford’s Rise of the Robots is a very important, timely, and well-informed book. Smart machines, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, and the “Internet of things” are transforming every sector of the economy. Machines can outperform workers in a rapidly widening arc of activities. Will smart machines lead to a world of plenty, leisure, health care, and education for all; or to a world of inequality, mass unemployment, and a war between the haves and have-nots, and between the machines and the workers left behind? Ford doesn’t claim to have all of the answers, but he asks the right questions and offers a highly informed and panoramic view of the debate. This is an excellent book that offers us a sophisticated glimpse into our possible futures.”
—Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute, Columbia University and author of The Age of Sustainable Development
About the Author
Martin Ford, the founder of a Silicon Valley–based software development firm, has over twenty-five years of experience in computer design and software development. The author of The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology, and the Economy of the Future, he lives in Sunnyvale, California.
@MFordFuture
Most helpful customer reviews
94 of 97 people found the following review helpful.
Incredible book from page 75 on -- An AI Professor's Opinion
By migedy
I have taught Artificial Intelligence (AI) for 3 decades at a major university. Until about 10 years ago, whenever someone worried about the effect of intelligent software/hardware destroying future jobs, I would always give my "buggy whip" argument, which goes like this:
"When the automobile was invented it DID destroy many jobs. Makers of buggy whips and horse troughs were put out of business. But many more NEW jobs were created to replace those older jobs. Witness all the gas stations, auto mechanic shops, car factories, etc."
About 8 years ago I lost faith in the buggy whip argument. I realized that, as the technology of AI advanced, a point would be reached in which intelligent software and general-purpose robots could perform all tasks (both mental and physical) that are currently achievable only by highly educated humans. Once one intelligent robot exists with a high level of general intelligence, it can be mass produced. There have been many advances in AI in recent years (in neural networks, planning and learning systems). Machine learning systems can now learn a number of complex cognitive tasks simply by observing the past performance of human experts.
I have always been an admirer of the combination of modern capitalism and (relatively) free markets as the major drivers of wealth. However, modern capitalism (with its corporations, stock and dividends) is less than a few centuries old. There is no reason to believe that it must last forever. Its "reign" over older economic systems may well end abruptly in the near future.
At one time I toyed with writing a book about my concerns regarding intelligent automation and its future effect on political and economic systems but Martin Ford has a done a 100-times better job that I could have ever done. His book is very persuasive in pointing out why the "buggy whip" argument will cease to remain persuasive.
I only have two complaints about Ford's book: (a) the title sounds a bit too much like a title for a pulp-fiction work and so I fear that not enough people will read it and (b) the first 75 pages consist of a standard summary of current economic facts and principles and so I fear that some readers may quit reading his book before they get to the really interesting parts, which in my opinion, start after page 75.
112 of 127 people found the following review helpful.
Must Reading!
By Loyd Eskildson
Economists have long derided early 1800s' Luddite 'lump of labor' belief that there was only a fixed amount of work to be done, and that labor-saving devices would detract from available jobs. Historically, that has been far from the case in the U.S. - advancing technology has steadily brought more prosperity for all. Even the mechanization of American agriculture, despite eliminating millions of jobs, failed to create massive unemployment - millions more new jobs became available in manufacturing. Then came automation and sending jobs to Mexico and the Far East (outsourcing, globalization, offshoring) - those lost jobs were replaced by new service jobs, often offering better wages. Until now.
America's economy is now obviously stuck in a rut, notwithstanding the almost daily reports of new technologies, green products, and purportedly beneficial free trade pacts. In fact, author Ford (and others) tells us we're now realizing this formerly symbiotic relationship between increasing productivity and rising standards of living began weakening in the 1970s. In a 1/2/2010 article, the Washington Post reported that the just completed first decade of the 21st century brought no new jobs, a first since the Great Depression. This 'lost decade' is especially astonishing when one also realizes our economy needs to create about a million jobs/year just to keep up with growth in the size of the workforce. Meanwhile, income inequality has rebounded, reaching levels not seen since 1929
Ford (mistakenly) attributes this new economy entirely to automation, severely underestimating the impact of offshoring. Regardless, automation has also been a major contributor to job losses both in manufacturing and service sectors, and underlying automation's increasingly rapid (geometric) growth - Moore's Law, applied to both computer power and memory. Both areas are seeing a rough doubling in capability every two years - continuing a pace that began about 40 years ago and now bringing unimaginable (scope and pace) change throughout our economy.
We now have experimental self-driving cars, IBM's 'Watson' defeating all-time Jeopardy! champions, innumerable 'ugly teller' ATMs taking the place much more attractive tellers, airplanes can now largely fly themselves, computers interpret some medical images, much legal discovery work now is performed far faster and cheaper with scanners and PC programs, cash registers not only automatically calculate change due - they also input customer-specific data into huge databases, meetings no longer require expensive and time-consuming travel, hardware stores are testing robots as greeters that also help direct customers and are able to immediately tell them if a part they're looking for is in stock, robots are becoming cheaper and much more easily programmable, etc. Thus, wages for new college graduates have been declining in real terms over the past decade and up to half of new graduates are forced to take jobs that don't require a college degree.
Two sectors have resisted automation - education and health care. The latter is slowly moving forward, helped by the accumulation and analyses of massive amounts of data that will slowly unravel a better understanding of 'What works' (many treatments don't help or are even harmful; regardless, many generally helpful treatments don't work for all patient situations), assist providers in accurate diagnoses (IBM's Watson is already training for this role) and providing helpful treatment reminders. Meanwhile, in the higher-education realm, MOOCs have been introduced, found wanting, and are now being improved and formally incorporated into degree/certificate programs. Elementary and high-schools have been the most resistant - however, adaptive learning has been introduced there and is also being steadily improved.
The fastest-growing market for robots is China - installations have grown about 25%/year since 2005, despite its relatively low wage rates. Another likely surprise - the source of much robot innovation. Microsoft's Xbox 360 console (available for $150) uses a webcam-like device that incorporates 3D machine vision capability that allows interaction simply by gesturing and moving within view of its camera. New 'Baxter' robots (about $20,000, can be used for light assembly, transferring parts between conveyers, packing product, tending machining operations) can be trained simply by moving its arms through the required motions - that robot can then send its 'learning' to others.
Standardized software and hardware building blocks have brought an explosion of application software for PCs, iPhones, iPads, Android apps, etc. Ford sees this pattern repeating with robots.
Ford's forecasts, unfortunately, cannot be taken at face value. For example, he sees 're-shoring' (bringing manufacturing jobs back to America) as becoming a major force, thanks to automation. Maybe. But will American robot manufacturing be competitive with Chinese robot manufacturing? If robots will tilt the playing field so much back in our favor, why are auto manufacturing building new plants in Mexico? And his claim that robots will allow siting American manufacturing closer to users ignores that reality of scale economies and the powerful existing transportation economies created by 1.5 mile-long trains transporting cargo containers across the U.S. Some industries will benefit (eg. fashion clothes), others will not.
Low wages and nearly complete lack of benefits have drawn intensive criticism and media coverage for the fast-food industry. Yet, when McDonald's launched a high-profile 2011 initiative to hire 50,000 new workers in a single day, it received over one million applications. Meanwhile, Momentum Machines is working to fully automate production of gourmet-quality hamburgers, believing its device will pay for itself in less than a year. Another potential advantage - improved hygiene as fewer workers would come in contact with the food.
'Retail worker' is another sector with very-high employment numbers. There we already have disruption via online retailers like Amazon and Netflix. Once jobs move to a warehouse they become far easier to automate - eg. Amazon is now placing Kiva robots (small devices that bring specific shelves to workers, rather than having workers walk to shelves) and one Wall Street analyst estimates those robots will allow Amazon to cut fulfillment costs up to 40%. Kroger warehouses are working on an even more sophisticated system eliminating labor used for storing items in its warehouses and preparing pallets for store delivery. Meanwhile, Netflix has driven Blockbuster etc. out of business, and Amazon et al have recently eliminated Borders and Circuit City from the landscape, and eg. movie rental kiosks (eg. Redbox) seem to be an anachronism,.
Ford then continues, considering the impact of robots on agriculture, and more intellectual realms.
44 of 50 people found the following review helpful.
The most compelling text yet on automation & it's impact on our future
By Abhas Gupta
I read an early draft of the book and just finished the final version. Automation will be THE defining social and political issue of the next decade. And of all the books, articles, blogs, & interviews I've come across on this topic, Rise of the Robots makes the most compelling case yet. I can't recommend this book strongly enough--thought leaders, technologists, and policymakers, please read this! The sooner we can implement thoughtful, complimentary policies, the sooner we can mitigate the negative impact automation can have on hundreds of millions of workers.
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